Expectation
26/04/08 22:55 Filed in: Sport
Tomorrow's Heineken Cup
semi-final clash between Munster and Saracens brings
about all the usual pre-big-match emotions and
apprehensiveness. We know that the Munster should
prevail, but it can never be taken for granted.
All this week, Declan Kidney has been bigging up Saracens in an effort to deflect from the general media consensus that Munster go into this match as favourites. They came out of a group that included Biarritz, perennial HC heavyweights. they dispatched the Ospreys, several of whom had won the Grand Slam in Welsh shirts a few weeks earlier. They are coached by Alan Gaffney, a coach who, more than most, knows what makes Munster tick.
Much has been made of the fact that the Munster branch returned a portion of their ticket allocation for this match. This has been interpreted as the fans taking the Kerry approach, and choosing not to travel until the final. This may or may not be the prevailing attitude (and I don't believe it is, as Munster fans take nothing for granted), but if there is complacency among the support, it is not there in the team. This is cup rugby, and as such you only have one chance to get it right.
Munster have worked very hard to get this far. They had the shittiest pool draw imaginable, yet won it in style. This was followed by an away quarter-final to Gloucester. Kingsholm is never a venue to look forward to, but Munster went there and won comfortably.
Saracens have never competed at this level of the Heineken Cup before. This is Munster's seventh HC semi-final. They have won three of the last six, and of course, won the competition itself in 2006. Declan Kidney was able to deal from a full deck when he named his team during the week. Alan Gaffney is missing some key players like Andy Farrell and Chris Jack.
Predicting the outcome of a sporting encounter is not particularly scientific. Relying on statistics alone is never a definitive route to making a call. As the man said, statistics are like lamp posts, there to illuminate but not to lean to heavily upon. You look at past performances, take into account mitigating factors like injuries and so on. But there are also the intangibles, the unknown unknowns as Donald Rumsfeld might say.
Saracens may surprise Munster, as they did the Ospreys in the quarter final. But we also have to look at their form in the Guinness Premiership. This is their bread and butter, and they are mid-table at present. They lost to both Gloucester and Wasps in the GP since their win over the Ospreys. Big deal, you might say, Munster lost to Leinster in the Magners League the week after winning at Gloucester. But there is a difference. Even though they will deny it publicly, deep down, as long as they are still in the Heineken Cup, Munster couldn't give a shit about the Magners League. For Saracens, the Guinness Premiership matters hugely.
Munster should win tomorrow, but it will not be easy. Saracens will put up a good fight, but it won't be enough.
A Munster-Toulouse final should be in the offing by tomorrow evening. Now that would be something to look forward to.
All this week, Declan Kidney has been bigging up Saracens in an effort to deflect from the general media consensus that Munster go into this match as favourites. They came out of a group that included Biarritz, perennial HC heavyweights. they dispatched the Ospreys, several of whom had won the Grand Slam in Welsh shirts a few weeks earlier. They are coached by Alan Gaffney, a coach who, more than most, knows what makes Munster tick.
Much has been made of the fact that the Munster branch returned a portion of their ticket allocation for this match. This has been interpreted as the fans taking the Kerry approach, and choosing not to travel until the final. This may or may not be the prevailing attitude (and I don't believe it is, as Munster fans take nothing for granted), but if there is complacency among the support, it is not there in the team. This is cup rugby, and as such you only have one chance to get it right.
Munster have worked very hard to get this far. They had the shittiest pool draw imaginable, yet won it in style. This was followed by an away quarter-final to Gloucester. Kingsholm is never a venue to look forward to, but Munster went there and won comfortably.
Saracens have never competed at this level of the Heineken Cup before. This is Munster's seventh HC semi-final. They have won three of the last six, and of course, won the competition itself in 2006. Declan Kidney was able to deal from a full deck when he named his team during the week. Alan Gaffney is missing some key players like Andy Farrell and Chris Jack.
Predicting the outcome of a sporting encounter is not particularly scientific. Relying on statistics alone is never a definitive route to making a call. As the man said, statistics are like lamp posts, there to illuminate but not to lean to heavily upon. You look at past performances, take into account mitigating factors like injuries and so on. But there are also the intangibles, the unknown unknowns as Donald Rumsfeld might say.
Saracens may surprise Munster, as they did the Ospreys in the quarter final. But we also have to look at their form in the Guinness Premiership. This is their bread and butter, and they are mid-table at present. They lost to both Gloucester and Wasps in the GP since their win over the Ospreys. Big deal, you might say, Munster lost to Leinster in the Magners League the week after winning at Gloucester. But there is a difference. Even though they will deny it publicly, deep down, as long as they are still in the Heineken Cup, Munster couldn't give a shit about the Magners League. For Saracens, the Guinness Premiership matters hugely.
Munster should win tomorrow, but it will not be easy. Saracens will put up a good fight, but it won't be enough.
A Munster-Toulouse final should be in the offing by tomorrow evening. Now that would be something to look forward to.