It's a cliché that gets thrown out at manys the post-match press conference - you can only play what's in front of you. When it comes to analysis and prediction, you can only go on what's behind you.

So, looking forward to Ireland's Six Nation clash with France tomorrow, I find little solace in studying the recent results. We have to go back ten matches and eight years to find our last win in Paris, and a further 29 years to find the one before that! Since 2000, we have overcome the French twice at home, in 2001 and 2003.

So here's the numbers (since 2000, including RWC):

P 10; W 3; D 0; L7; F 177; A 288

Our biggest win was 22-15 in 2001, and our heaviest loss came the following year, 44-5. The average score in the last then games has been 18-29. France have won the last six games on the trot, with an average score of 18-32.

(Incidentally, of the Irish team that started in our last win in Paris, five will start on tomorrow, and another two will be on the bench. None of the French team of that day will feature tomorrow.)

So looking at those stats, I cannot see anything other than a defeat for Ireland tomorrow. Add in a few more observations:

- Ireland haven't played well since last year's Six Nations, and struggled against a poor Italian side at home last week.
- France showed none of their frequent first-day jitters last Sunday with a convincing win away to Scotland.
- Vincent Clerc is playing, and he's normally good for a try or two against us.
- Eddie O'Sullivan is still our coach.

There are a few chinks of light, though:

- Three players will be making their Paris débuts, and you'd never know, Rob Kearney might repeat Brian O'Driscoll's hat-trick feat of 2000. (This, I readily concede, is a long shot.)
- Ronan O'Gara is back on form, and would appear to have put the nightmare of the World Cup behind him.
- The French might see Bernard Jackman's bald head at hooker and think that Keith Wood is back.

But I don't think that will be enough to save us. I can't see another match like the extraordinary one of 2006, when Ireland came back from 43-3 down to finish 43-31. I can't see where Ireland's tries will come from. Our line is too flat. Guys are taking ball on and going into a tackle one millisecond later. There is no opportunity to generate any momentum to break the tackle or to offload before the tackle goes in. It also allows the opposition line to stay on the right side of the ref's offside radar and get the tackles in early and legally. So what happens is that we lose field position, as rucks form further and further back. We need strong ball carriers to pick and go, and break the gain line, so hopefully our rejigged backrow might be able to do this.

Alternatively, ROG will use the boot, but to what effect? We got nothing from the Italian line-out last week (and coughed up a few of our own), so how are we going to turn his darts to the corner to our advantage? Those lovely cross-field kicks he put up for the winger to run on to are a joy to watch, but that's a weapon to be used sparingly.

Much as I love France as a country, I cannot stand their sodding rugby team. They are to Irish rugby what the Kerry footballers are to Mayo. You might admire their skill and their flair, but you'll never get me to like them.