The Elections
03/06/09 21:42 Filed in: Politics
It seems like we have
been living with those wretched election posters
forever, so it’s comforting to know that they will
all be gone by Friday week. The local and European
elections aren’t quite as meaty as a general
election, but there has been some drama along the
way nonetheless.
Polls up to now have pointed to a potentially disastrous election for Fianna Fáil. They stand to lose several council seats and at possibly one Euro seat as well. If, as the polls suggest, they end up in second or even third place in terms of votes won, it will be a huge boost for the opposition parties. However, it will matter not a jot, as the coalition will still have a majority in the Dáil. Can you imagine Brian Cowen appearing on the steps of Government Buildings on the evening after the count, announcing a general election because he feels that the government no longer have the confidence of the people? No, me neither.
The only way this government could fall is if FF lose Dublin South and the Greens decide to walk. That is unlikely too (the Greens walking, that is - FF probably will lose D South), as John Gormley and his colleagues know that they will be annihilated in the ensuing election. Fianna Fáil will never be shamed into calling an election if they can still cobble the numbers together. Their arses are much too comfortable in their ministerial Mercs.
Much as I feel I should take part in the national witch-hunt against the government parties, I am going to resist. As anyone who would have been reading this blog at the time of the Lisbon Treaty campaign will know, I was and remain a staunch supporter of the notion that passing the Treaty is vital for both Ireland and the EU. I cannot see why it would be in Ireland’s interest to elect MEPs who are hostile to the EU, whether they be from Sinn Féin, Libertas or independents like Joe Higgins in Dublin or Kathy Sinnott in South. Therefore, in the Euro poll, my preferences will go to pro-Lisbon Treaty candidates and parties only. And that will include Fianna Fáil.
In the locals, I admit that I am still somewhat undecided. Local politics are very different to national, and I know that there are some very fine candidates available from all parties and also standing as independents. While I would never countenance voting for an independent candidate in a general election, I have no such qualms when it comes to local elections. Of all the candidates I have met since the campaign began, one independent here in Port has impressed me most and will probably get my Number 1. I will continue well down the ballot paper for my subsequent preferences.
So, some predictions for the Euros:
East: Mairéad McGuinness, Liam Aylward and Nessa Childers
Dublin: Pronsias de Rossa, Gay Mitchell and Mary Lou McDonald just pipping Eoin Ryan for the third.
South: Brian Crowley, Séan Kelly (taking Colm Burke’s seat), and either Alan Kelly or Toireasa Ferris taking Kathy Sinnott’s seat. (What was that? Call it? OK then - Kelly - just.)
North-West: Pat “da Cope” Gallagher, Jim Higgins and Marian Harkin.
What I would like to see:
Eoin Ryan prevail in Dublin over Mary Lou McDonald.
Kathy Sinnott to be told by the people of Munster that her services are no longer required.
Libertas to be humiliated.
Polls up to now have pointed to a potentially disastrous election for Fianna Fáil. They stand to lose several council seats and at possibly one Euro seat as well. If, as the polls suggest, they end up in second or even third place in terms of votes won, it will be a huge boost for the opposition parties. However, it will matter not a jot, as the coalition will still have a majority in the Dáil. Can you imagine Brian Cowen appearing on the steps of Government Buildings on the evening after the count, announcing a general election because he feels that the government no longer have the confidence of the people? No, me neither.
The only way this government could fall is if FF lose Dublin South and the Greens decide to walk. That is unlikely too (the Greens walking, that is - FF probably will lose D South), as John Gormley and his colleagues know that they will be annihilated in the ensuing election. Fianna Fáil will never be shamed into calling an election if they can still cobble the numbers together. Their arses are much too comfortable in their ministerial Mercs.
Much as I feel I should take part in the national witch-hunt against the government parties, I am going to resist. As anyone who would have been reading this blog at the time of the Lisbon Treaty campaign will know, I was and remain a staunch supporter of the notion that passing the Treaty is vital for both Ireland and the EU. I cannot see why it would be in Ireland’s interest to elect MEPs who are hostile to the EU, whether they be from Sinn Féin, Libertas or independents like Joe Higgins in Dublin or Kathy Sinnott in South. Therefore, in the Euro poll, my preferences will go to pro-Lisbon Treaty candidates and parties only. And that will include Fianna Fáil.
In the locals, I admit that I am still somewhat undecided. Local politics are very different to national, and I know that there are some very fine candidates available from all parties and also standing as independents. While I would never countenance voting for an independent candidate in a general election, I have no such qualms when it comes to local elections. Of all the candidates I have met since the campaign began, one independent here in Port has impressed me most and will probably get my Number 1. I will continue well down the ballot paper for my subsequent preferences.
So, some predictions for the Euros:
East: Mairéad McGuinness, Liam Aylward and Nessa Childers
Dublin: Pronsias de Rossa, Gay Mitchell and Mary Lou McDonald just pipping Eoin Ryan for the third.
South: Brian Crowley, Séan Kelly (taking Colm Burke’s seat), and either Alan Kelly or Toireasa Ferris taking Kathy Sinnott’s seat. (What was that? Call it? OK then - Kelly - just.)
North-West: Pat “da Cope” Gallagher, Jim Higgins and Marian Harkin.
What I would like to see:
Eoin Ryan prevail in Dublin over Mary Lou McDonald.
Kathy Sinnott to be told by the people of Munster that her services are no longer required.
Libertas to be humiliated.