Groundhog Day

Girvan Dempsey (36)
Andrew Trimble (27)
Brian O'Driscoll (32)
Gordon D'Arcy (31)
Geordan Murphy (33)
Ronan O'Gara (34)
Eoin Reddan (31)
Marcus Horan (34)
Rory Best (29)
John Hayes (37)
Donncha O'Callaghan (32)
Malcolm O'Kelly (37)
Simon Easterby (36)
David Wallace (35)
Denis Leamy (29)

Replacements:

Bernard Jackman (35)
Tony Buckley (31)
Mick O'Driscoll (33)
Jamie Heaslip (28)
Peter Stringer (33)
Paddy Wallace (32)
Rob Kearney (25)

Not considered:

Jerry Flannery (33)
Paul O'Connell (32)

Above is the team selected for Ireland's Six Nations opener against Italy on Saturday. What, you may ask, is the significance of the number in brackets beside each name? That is the age each member of the squad will be in October 2011, when the next World Cup is being staged.

Six of that 24 will be 35 or over, and so will have little hope of representing Ireland in New Zealand in 2011. Another ten will be 32 or over, and will be coming to the end of their careers by then.

International rugby tends to go in four year cycles these days, starting and finishing with the World Cup. Once one World Cup is over, a new cycle begins, culminating in the next World Cup. Or so the theory goes. Except of course if it is Ireland you are talking about and the coach is Eddie O'Sullivan.

By all accounts, Ireland's World Cup campaign in 2007 was a disaster. We finished third in our Pool, and failed to qualify or the knock-out stages. That in itself wasn't the problem, as ourselves, France and Argentina were all in the top six ranked teams in the world going into the tournament. One of us had to blink, and unfortunately it was the team wearing green that did. No, the problem was the nature of how we went out. Unconvincing wins over minnows Namibia and Georgia were followed by emphatic losses to France and Argentina. There was no cohesion, no consistency and above all no flair.

But, we were told by an Eddie O'Sullivan who prior to the tournament had just signed a new four year deal as national coach, this was just "a blip." I can accept this excuse if it involved just one poor performance. But this was four poor matches on the trot. (Six if you count the pre-tournament near-miss against Italy at Ravenhill and the loss to Scotland in Murrayfield.) No, "blip" is not the word I would use. "Utter fucking shambles" would be closer to the mark.

Let's look at the team selection in detail.

Normally, I would immediately put Geordan Murphy at full back, but as we're shy on wingers at the moment, he's ok on the wing, with Girv at the back. That said, this could have been an opportunity to bring Tommy Bowe back into the fold, as he has been one of the few bright points for Ulster this season. Maybe his omission from the international set-up is a factor in his signing for the Ospreys. Luke Fitzgerald should also have a shout here.

I think it's time to shake up the centre of midfield. Individually, O'Driscoll and D'Arcy are indisputably two of the finest centres in the world, but they have played too many games together. Everyone knows how they play and they can be read like a book by now. The shimmies and breaks they got away with a few seasons ago don't work any more. I would put Trimble in with O'Driscoll for a match or two to see how they play off each other.

In the half-backs, ROG is in dazzling form at Munster, and it will be interesting to see if he can bring that form with him to the national camp, given his torrid time at the World Cup. But there is no effective short-term cover, and even more worryingly no understudy coming through. I agree with Eoin Reddan's selection at scrum-half, as he is clearly international standard and needs to get games under his belt. Hopefully we have seen the last of Isaac Boss in an Ireland shirt.

Up front, we need to start bedding in a successor to John Hayes. The Bull will be 35 this year, and is the oldest member of the squad. Tony Buckley should be starting this match, with John on the bench. The best way to see if someone is international standard or not is to throw them in at the deep end. Buckley is 27, so we need to know now if he can take over from The Bull. Five minute cameos at the end of won games won't tell us anything.

I reckon Eddie O'Sullivan was delighted when Jerry Flannery was ruled out of the Six Nations due to suspension. It would have meant a three way tussle for the No. 2 jersey, and it would have been very difficult to justify picking Rory Best. But with Flannery out of the way, it meant that he had a choice between Best and Jackman, and his blind faith in the Ulsterman was always going to trump Jackman's form.

Donncha has been on fire for Munster so far this season, and he seems to have left his indifferent World Cup form behind him in France. No argument here at No 4. But who should keep Paul O'Connell's seat warm? Sure, Malcolm O'Kelly has been playing great rugby, but he's not exactly a hot prospect for the future, is he, being 34 years old and Ireland's most-capped player? Leo Cullen deserved to be brought in from the cold here.

Back row. Eddie, Eddie, Eddie… Why, oh fucking why, is Simon Easterby at 6? He's 33, and captain of Llanelli, the team that just finished bottom of Pool 5 in the Heineken Cup with zero points. Who has been playing the rugby of his life at 6 this season for Munster? Does this well-known Irish landmark give you a hint?

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Here's another hint - you have him at 8. For the love of God, put Leamy at 6, and bring Heaslip in at 8. Wallace at 7 is fine, just in case you thought I was picking on you.

It's the innate, stultifying conservatism of Eddie O'Sullivan that bugs me so much. The unwillingness to try out new players. Look at Saturday's match. We have never lost to Italy in the Six Nations. We're playing them at home, in Croke Park. They have a new coach, and are missing one or two key players. It's a good bet that Ireland will win this match, and we have as good a chance of winning with a few new caps as we have with the old stagers. If Eddie isn't prepared to experiment for this game, then we can expect to see the same old faces throughout the tournament.

A prediction for Ireland in the Six Nations? This is a tough one as nearly every other team is going through a process of renewal and upheaval. The best I can come up with is that we will either finish second or second last. We won't win because Eddie has decided that we can't beat France. Even if the French team were to stay in their dressing room at Stade de France on Saturday week, we would still lose to them. We'll beat Italy, so that means we'll stay off the bottom.

As an Irishman and a passionate supporter of the national team, naturally I hope we do well. But if we do badly, it might bring the O'Sullivan regime to a quick end, which would be better for Irish rugby in the long run.