In recent weeks, Tánaiste Brian Cowen (of this parish, sorta) has been sent out several times to bat in defence of Don Bertione. When answering opposition criticism of the Taoiseach, especially from Enda Kenny, he describes Fine Gael as a party that was "rejected by the electorate."

Let's examine this claim. In 2007, Fine Gael won 51 seats, up 20 from 31. Fianna Fáil won 78 seats, down three from 81.

What are Biffo's criteria for defining "rejected"? On the face of it, it looks like being simply unable to cobble together the numbers to form a government. So does that mean that the government parties have been decisively endorsed by the electorate? The PDs still have a cabinet minister, even though they only have two TDs now, having lost six of the eight that were elected to the 29th Dáil. Even the Greens didn't manage to increase their representation in the 30th Dáil, flatlining with six TDs.

The reality is that no one party was either decisively endorsed or rejected. Due to the fractured nature of our party political system, parties that have seemingly been endorsed by the electorate can end up in opposition; while those that have been rejected can end up in government.

Does anyone remember the months that followed the 2002 election? The sneaky tax hikes? The rise in prescription charges and in the cost of visiting a doctor? The school building projects that were cancelled due to lack of funds? The way everyone was talking the economy down?

Of course we don't because it was aeons ago. Well, it's all happening again, so I suggest that this time, the Irish electorate takes note of all that has happened in the six months since the election. Things like the shafting of Shannon; the recruitment freeze in the HSE; the cavalier attitude of Bertie Ahern to the Portlaoise cancer affair; the provisional licence debacle; etc.

Once again the government is talking down the economy. Lessening people's expectations means not having to do anything about tax reform for a couple of years, at least not till the next election looms over the horizon.

The chutzpah of Ahern and his cronies is absolutely unreal. Today, addressing the social partners at Farmleigh, he and Brian Cowen advised that wage demands should be kept to a minimum as tough times were ahead. Just after they helped themselves to a 14% pay hike, paid for by you and me, Citizen Taxpayer.

Last week, the Irish Times published a poll which showed a sharp drop in support for the coalition. I'd imagine that this news was greeted at Fianna Fáil HQ in the way that a teenager would react to being chastised by his parents. A roll of the eyes and a "Yeah, whateeeever!" They couldn't care less if support for the government was at zero right now, because the next election is four and a half years away. By which time, the economy will have miraculously recovered, and everything will be just fine and dandy.

And this is why we should take note of all that is happening now. So that when these trolls come out from under their bridges looking for our votes in 2012, we can remind them of the cuts, the hikes, the lies, the excuses and the hypocrisy.

So there we have it. The Greens have endorsed the Programme for Government and Bertie will duly be re-elected Taoiseach tomorrow. If anything this coalition is even more "Rainbow" than the last "Rainbow Coalition" of 1994-1997, including in its ranks the representatives of free-for-all developers alongside environmentalists, not to mention the free market libertarians of the PDs.

Hopefully it will work, because political instability is not a desirable state of affairs.

Many on the (funda)mentalist wing of the Greens (and their buddies in the People Before Profit Alliance) are seething. Several of them were airing their views on the radio this evening. The issues that seem to exercise them most were the US military's use of Shannon and the co-location of private hospitals on public land.

The Shannon thing first. OK, so we all know that the US/UK invasion of Iraq wasn't a good idea, but they are in there now and are operating under a UN mandate. We can't turn back the clock, nor can the US just leave without clearing up the mess. Just deal with it.

Co-location: Now I'm not a fan of the PDs or anything, but I believe that Mary Harney has actually been doing a good job at Health. The problems in our health service will not be solved just by throwing money at it, but instead by using the resources we invest in the service more effectively. This means taking on the vested interests, tackling the inefficiencies, facing up to the unions, and enlisting the private sector in areas where they can do a better job than the public sector. Co-location is one of these areas. But the attitude from some quarters is that the private sector is intrinsically evil and must be kept away as a matter of principle. But if the way is made clear for the private sector to get beds onstream quickly, they will do it because demand for private beds is huge. And if private patients are in private beds, that means that public beds are freed up for public patients, leading to shorter waiting times. Locating private and public hospitals alongside one another also makes sense in that facilities can be shared, lowering the investment needed for the public service and also the cost to the private patients.

Tags: politics, fianna fail, greens, government, mentalists

I was chided by a commenter the other day for referring to Jackie Healy-Rae as a 'gobshite'. In truth, it was probably a bit unfair to single out JH-R, because I tend to consider all Independent TDs as gobshites.

Independents are a symptom of our clientilist political process. It is true that they are probably the hardest working politicians in the country, as they have to do as many favours as possible to as many constituents as possible in order to keep their snouts in the trough stay elected.

But we elect our TDs to Dáil Eireann to legislate for the whole state, not just for the constituency for which they are elected. And this is where Independents are at fault. During the 28th Dáil (1997-2002) the government sought to have Kerry included as an Objective 1 area for EU subsidy funding. They did this under pressure from Jackie Healy-Rae, who was supporting the minority government at the time. We lost a lot of respect in EU circles for that little stunt.

The Greens are insisting on a new form of chauffeur-driven transport if they are to coalesce with Fianna Fáil

The lads at Curry Chips are rounding up the election in their inimitable style. Here's my contribution:

Well, it looks like we will have to endure another five years of Fianna Fáil in government. I hoped that we might get a change, but the electorate thought otherwise. The vote for both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and the seats won by both parties are well up on 2002.

Enda Kenny can hold his head high after this election. Fine Gael look like they will regain all the ground they lost in 2002 and more. There is a tendency in political parties when they are not elected to government for the leader to resign. I hope that Enda Kenny resists this path. He should remain as leader and build on the gains made in this election. Pat Rabbitte is the leader who should walk the plank in this election. Labour have stagnated under his leadership.

So that's the cloud, where is the silver lining?

Sinn Féin. They were going to win ten seats. They were going to call the shots on who would form the next government. Their poster girl, Mary Lou McDonald was going to take a seat in Bertie's own constituency. They got their holes kicked, big time.

Independents. Pretty much wiped out. Sadly, that gobshite Jackie Healy-Rae will be around for another five years, but most of the "hospital" candidates look set to lose out.

Still waiting on the first count from Laois-Offaly…

Tags: elections, politics

Adds Thursday 7.25AM: I have tidied this post up a bit, to add in the bits I forgot last night.

And so, tomorrow is "Make Your Mind Up" day.

After three weeks of claims, counter-claims, accusations, rebuttals, photo-ops, debates, soundbites, stunts, acres of newsprint and hours of broadcasts, we get to the point where we mark our preferences next to the candidates offering themselves for election.

I have given a lot of thought to where my top preferences will go. There is no doubt that FF and the PDs have managed the economy well, but at what social cost? House prices have risen exponentially in the last ten years, to the point that first time buyers are taking on huge amounts of debt over very long periods. Yet rising house prices are seen as a good thing. Many are forced to the outer limits of the commuter belt in order to find suitable housing that they can afford. Thousands of people doing daily 150km round trip commutes is not good for the economy, the environment, the communities within which these people live, nor indeed for the commuters themselves or their families. But as Bertie himself said in a Morning Ireland interview last Monday we should at least be "tankful" that these people are in Athy, Arklow and Portlaoise, and not in Baltimore (I presume he means Baltimore, Maryland, as opposed to Baltimore, Co Cork), Sydney or London. A superb "Let them eat cake" moment.

The health service is a mess, but to be fair, Mary Harney is at least making an attempt to straighten it out. Unlike her two predecessors, who were reluctant incumbents of the role. Micheal Martin presided over what was probably this government's most forward-thinking policy initiative - the ban on smoking ion the workplace - yet he did nothing about the nursing home crisis.

There is a potential time bomb down the road for the Education system. Provincial villages have become commuter towns overnight and their schools are reaching bursting point. There have been 2000 new houses built in Sallins, Co Kildare in the last ten years, but they still don't have a secondary school. They have to go the already overcrowded schools in Naas. We had the dreadful situation in Laytown, Co Meath, where there were no places for 90 school starters last September. Expect to see this happen more often within a semi-circle with an axis that stretches from Drogheda to Arklow.

Back in 1999, when the first National Development Plan was launched, we were promised motorway links between Dublin and all the major cities in the state by 2006. That has been revised back to 2010. The Dublin Port Tunnel was two years late, several million Euros over budget and one metre short in height. Two new LUAS lines were built in Dublin, but they did not intersect. Bordeaux built their "LUAS" at the same time as Dublin, and all three lines intersect.

Ten years into this government and still we rely on imports of oil for our energy. There has been sod all effort made at creating a policy on long-term energy security. We're lucky at the moment that the dollar is so weak. Can you imagine the price of oil if $1 was worth more than €1? This is a pressing issue and there has been virtual silence from all parties on it. We need to look at increasing dramatically our renewables, and at least talk in a rational way about the prospect of nuclear energy.

I'm going to vote for change. Ten years is long enough to be in government and get your policies implemented. After that, arrogance sets in. It's like that shit that comes out whenever a party has been in power for a long time - the opposition front bench don't have enough ministerial experience and therefore can't be trusted. Tony Blair had no experience before he became prime minister of the UK and he did alright (his role as Bush's bitch notwithstanding.)

There is also a local reason behind my decision. The party standing in Laois/Offaly after the 2002 election was FF 3, FG 1, PD 1. Four to one in favour of the current government. I don't believe that this accurately reflects the wishes of the Laois/Offaly electorate, and a 3:2 split would be more appropriate.

The policies of the various parties are broadly similar, so the decision is who is the most competent and trustworthy. FF and the PDs have produced some excellent ministers like Brian Cowen and Mary Harney. But they have also had some chumps like Noel Dempsey, Dick Roche and Martin Cullen. Hopefully FG/Lab/Greens will be a lot better at managing the country than FF/PDs. They can't be much worse.

Some might say that they can't be bothered voting, and that their vote won't make any difference. Seats have been won and lost on a handful of votes in the past, so every vote does count. I remember my father telling me about the count in Mayo last time round. I can't remember the exact details, but if a small number of votes had gone in another direction, Enda Kenny would have lost his seat and Jim Higgins would be challenging Bertie Ahern for the top job now. Instead, it was Higgins who lost his seat.

The time has come. Let's see what the other lot can do.

Tags: elections, politics

For those of you not fortunate enough to live in the Laois-Offaly constituency, I give you the election literature of independent candidate extraordinaire, John Bracken.



Full-fat version here

More John Bracken:

But, Are Ye Ridin'? (Green Ink)

Enda Kenny can kiss goodbye the possibility of a third seat in his own constituency of Mayo.

And if you are a Mayo fan and enjoy good writing on what is, ultimately, a painful and futile obsession, then the musings of Willie Joe at Green and Red will be right up your street.

[Disclaimer - Even though the site is called UnLaoised, I am actually a native of Mayo.]

This election, more than any before it, is heavily influenced by the internet. All the parties have their sites ship-shape, and indeed most individual candiates have their own sites and blogs on the go too.

We have sites that seek to help us make our choice. pickyourparty.ie does this by gauging your position on various issues, assigning it a numerical value, and then comparing this with the numerical value it has evaluated for the various parties. Unlike the political compass, it is specific to Ireland and matches your opinions to a party rather than just point ot a particular political ideology.

Wait! There's More…

This was waiting for me on the mat when I came home this evening:



Full-fat version here.

Many are predicting that Sinn Féin will achieve their long-awaited breakthrough this election, and if they do, it won't be from want of producing mindless pap. Let's take a close look at the leaflet I received today.
Wait! There's More…

Still on the subject of posters, I was in Cork at the weekend and noticed something odd about the Fine Gael posters in the South Central constituency. A good few of them had lost their definition and had taken on a weird pasty look. Unfortunately, I didn't have a camera to hand, so the best I can do is give an idea using a Photoshop filter.
Wait! There's More…

Last week, I posted a photo of one of Aengus Ó Snodaigh's election posters, that I'd seen on the Long Mile Road, under the heading "Free The Dublin South-Central One!"

Driving up the LMR today, I noticed that it is no longer there. Maybe he has won his liberty. That's the power of a campaigning blog for ya!

via Semper Idem

An excerpt from Seamus Brennan's rebuttal of the Fine Gael manifesto:

Implementation of the Fine Gael Manifesto would deliver 1,000 less Gardai onto our streets and 1,500 less acute beds in our hospitals, than the Fianna Fáil option.

Jesus wept! At least get your grammar right, man!

Fewer Gardaí. Fewer acute beds.

Why can't people get that one right?

And so it has proven to be in the last seven days. Bertie's campaign, having gotten off to a bizarre start with the early-Sunday-morning dash to The Park, has descended into farce. Michael McDowell's press conference yesterday has pretty much put the kybosh on the PDs going back into government with an Ahern-led FF. In truth, yesterday's press conference has effectively brought McDowell's brief tenure at the helm of the PDs to an end. He admitted to have been sold a pup by Bertie Ahern last year, and so his credibility is in shreds.


This election is now Fine Gael/Labour's to lose. If they do lose it, then they might as well just give up and go home.

Election poster spotted on the Long Mile Road today:

And so the General Election campaign is underway. Yesterday, as I made my way to Centra on Station Road to get the paper, I noticed that Tom Parlon had had a crack squad of poster erectors at work overnight. Every lamp post on Canal Road had his poster, fore and aft. As the election hadn't yet been called, I was going to phone the Laois County Council Litter Hotline on Monday morning to complain. Dang! Bertie spoiled my fun.Wait! There's More…